I feel like we’ve been having this conversation for the last 4 years!! But each season – and each year – bring their own special considerations.
In 2020, we were smacked with a pandemic which shuttered the real estate industry almost overnight. Very quickly, buyers, sellers and agents adapted and we began seeing more virtual tours, video tours, and remote tours.
In fact, I sold MANY homes simply based on detailed video tours and Facetime showings… So many people were moving TO Austin from other states, and we had mandatory quarantine periods that literally made it impossible for clients to fly in, tour homes, and then go home!
Fast-forward to the end of 2020 and through spring of 2022 and we were engaged in a feeding frenzy that would make sharks seem like minnows!
Then, suddenly, within a matter of days, the market did a complete 180.
I actually had a friend contract one of my listings for purchase on a Monday after 60+ showings over the weekend. We listed her home four days later and had MAYBE six showings over a 21 day period before we got a contract!
So when I say it shifted quickly… it was inside of a couple of weeks!
The end of 2022 was easier for buyers and they weren’t facing competition from 3,4,10+ other offers. But sellers were not reducing their prices from the height of the market despite the fact that interest rates were creeping up steadily!
From the end of 2022 through most of 2023, the market was stagnant. We did see a slight dip in prices, but not the “crash” that so many had predicted.
Why?
Inventory is STILL an issue… SO many people refinanced into mortgages in the 2-3% range and simply don’t want to trade that in for 7.25%.
Consider a $500,000 mortgage.
At 2.75%, P&I (principle and interest) is $2820/month
At 7.25%, P&I (principle and interest) is $4,190/month
That’s almost $1400 more a month for the SAME mortgage amount.
Couple that with the fact that many homeowners have the taxable value locked in at a much lower rate… and it’s easily several thousand dollars a month more if a seller were to trade their home, apples to apples.
As such, inventory is going to continue to be a problem for the foreseeable future although we ARE starting to see an uptick in homes for sale THIS season.
Considering Interest Rates in Your Buying Decision
Given the current economic
indicators and expert forecasts, homebuyers are closely monitoring interest rates.
I think we’ve seen the major increases top out. Sure, they could still go up a bit, but we’re not likely to see 2-3 point increases moving forward. There are more indicators that we’re going to see rates drop. The timeframe is the big question.
By getting in now, and planning to refinance when rates drop to, say 6%, you can lock in the equity and simply refinance when rates drop. Many lenders will agree to waive any lender fees to refinance in the future if you purchase now.
Plus, when rates do begin to drop, my prediction is we’re going to see a lot more buyer competition. Layer that in with some regulatory changes coming down the pike and it may cost a good bit more to buy a home when rates drop!
Consider adjustable rate mortgages and/or temporary rate buy downs with seller credits in the short term.
People are starting to settle in on the new “normal” interest rates
For the last 4 years, interest
rates have been THE topic of conversation.
The frenzy to get in when interest rates were at historic lows caused the housing market to explode, followed by a “cooling” while people sat back to see just how high they would go and try to “wait” for them to come back down.
At the end of 2022, the “experts” were all suggesting rates would be back in the low to mid 5s by the end of 2023.
Quite the contrary… we saw them bounce up and down, but with an upward trend and have been sitting consistently above 7% for some time now. Home prices have stabilized and are even starting to rebound to normal appreciation levels.
And while we fully expect rates to come back into the 5s/6s at SOME point, that time is anyone’s guess. And I SURELY wouldn’t hold my breath during an election year.
But all indications are that once rates come down to low to mid 6s, we’re going to be in a similar spot to where we were in 2021/2022… maybe not QUITE as much of a frenzy, but multiple offers and steeper competition to be sure (we see that now when rates drop even .25%)
So, if people are considering
buying/selling, there’s really not reason NOT to do so now ESPECIALLY if you fall into one of these categories:
- First time home purchase. If you don’t CURRENTLY own a home, then this is a great time to get in. Sellers are motivated and will often consider a temporary rate buy down (which means lower payments for 1, 2 or 3 years).
- Relocating to the area or a new part of town! (remember, the best time buy real estate is always yesterday! NOW is the second best time ;-). Although… I DID recommend to more than a few people in 2023 to maybe hold off and see what the market was going to do ;-).
- Purchasing investment – or vacation – property. Sellers are a bit more motivated than they have been in recent years and this is probably a short window where you can get some equity baked into the transaction and then ride the market up when rates do come back down.
- Downsize, upsize, or simply want a change. There’s a good chance you can cash in on some equity and take advantage of the market before we start to see it go back up when rates drop. This also a good opportunity to ask for a temporary rate buy down from the seller OR to consider doing a temporary rate buy down yourself!
Adjustments in the Market and Regulatory Landscape
2024 is witnessing significant regulatory changes that could reshape the homebuying and selling landscape.
The National Association of
Realtors has proposed a monumental lawsuit that will usher in changes as to broker commissions are structured. Whether this has a net impact one way or another has yet to be seen. But early feedback shows that sellers are simply looking at is a way to keep more money in their pockets, and NOT reducing their prices, thereby adding ADDITIONAL closing costs to the buyer side.
This change is expected to take place later this year.
It also requires all agents to sign a formal “buyers agency” agreement with all buyers before showing them a home. (Technically this is should be done in Texas anyways because of how agency works, but that’s a topic for another day ;-)).
All in all, it’s going to make things a little more complicated for the short term while all the details get ironed out in the long run.
My long-term prediction: In the end, nothing really changes! But in the first months after rolling it out, there will be a lot of discussion about it!
Building Equity and Taking Advantage of Tax Benefits
One of the most compelling
arguments for buying a home now is the opportunity to build equity. Unlike rent, which offers no return on investment, each payment on your mortgage serves as a step toward greater financial security.
As property values generally trend upward over time – and we’re likely going to see some strong appreciation when rates do start to come down some.
In addition, you can take advantage of significant tax deductions on mortgage interest and property taxes, which can substantially reduce the net cost of owning a home.
The Long-Term Perspective
While I have done my share of fixer-upper/flip properties, MOST of the time, real estate
should be viewed as a long-term investment, and despite short-term market fluctuations, property values have historically appreciated over time.
This appreciation potential makes buying a home a worthwhile consideration, particularly in an environment where economic indicators suggest gradual long-term improvements.
The Path Forward
If you’re trying to decide
whether this is the right time to buy, the current landscape of the housing market suggests that it might be!
As we navigate the market, the importance of informed, strategic planning cannot be overstressed.
Consulting with real estate professionals who understand the nuances of the market can also provide crucial insights that aid in making a well-informed decision.
I’d love to schedule a time to chat about your situation, goals, and needs and help devise the right plan!
