An Economist’s View on the Market: Key Takeaways from Dr. Ray Perryman

It’s been a crazy year with regard to the economy, real estate, etc.

Last week, I was at our quarterly meeting up in Waco and we heard from Dr. Ray Perryman with some encouraging/interesting insight on the national economy, Texas, and real estate in particular.

Here are some key takeaways/snippets:

  • We are a million jobs ahead of the pre-pandemic. In TX, we are 700,000 jobs ahead! In other words, 70% of the jobs created have been in Texas!
  • Nationally, it took 27 months to rebound from the pandemic. Texas took 19 months, and Austin only 15 months to recover from the pandemic!
  • This is NOT the 70s/80s with inflation.
  • This is NOT 2008 with the real estate crash.
  • Interest are going to level off at some point this year and start to drop more (We are nearly a point lower than we were just a couple of months ago)
  • Last year, we had approximately 1300 NEW Texans a day (domestic migration, international migration and natural increase), with almost 231,000 people moving into TX from other states, beat out only by Florida! On the other hand, California lost nearly 350,000 and NY lost almost 300,000. We simply have a supply and demand situation.

So what does all of this mean?

That it’s still a great time to buy and sell in the greater Austin area. Nobody has a crystal ball to see what tomorrow will bring… but with the fundamentals still very strong, it’s a great time to “buy smart”.

In fact, if I were a betting woman (which I am not), I would say that when interest rates drop back down to the low 5% range, we’re going to see another swell of buyers come back into the pool. We’re already seeing an uptick. In the past 7 days, I’ve been involved in MULTIPLE offer situations with clients.

So, what does “buying smart” mean?

  1.  Know the numbers (how much you can comfortably afford, what your ‘net’ cost is after figuring out tax deductions and such);
  2. Review the trends for the neighborhood. Every neighborhood is different. It’s important to understand where a particular community is head. Has it leveled off in the past 30-60 days? Is it starting to rise again?;
  3. Consider putting in some “sweat equity” to add value. (We are currently renovating a property we picked up for $400,000 and will be worth about $625K STILL even with the current market shift);
  4. Focus on the WHY… The reason you’re buying (or selling) and that will guide you better than anything else.

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