Can Turkeys Really Fly?

Can Turkeys Really Fly?
Yesterday, I was chaperoning a field trip to a farm with my daughter out at Crows Nest Farm! All the children were smitten with the “100-year-old” turkey(who was really only 10 years old in turkey years!).

As I was corralling the 20+ kindergarteners for a photo by the turkey, one little boy yells out at the top of his lungs, “CAN TURKEYS FLY?”=

The kids all started laughing and asking one another, and the parents all looked at one another thinking, “Hmmm.. can they?”
It reminded me of an episode on WKRP in Cincinnati that I saw when I was about their age with my grandparents when Mr. Carlson, the station manager, dropped dozens of turkeys out of a helicopter for a station promotion on Thanksgiving, he quickly learned that turkeys couldn’t fly.  (Here’s the clip if you remember the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf3mgmEdfwg).

It got me thinking… are home prices like ‘flying’ turkeys? I mean… for months, I’ve had folks asking me if I thought prices were going to continue to fly off the handle for the forseeable future or if prices were going to come crashing down, much like Thanksgiving Day Turkeys being dropped from a helicopter?

Right now, we’re still in a seller’s market, but we are seeing homes sit on the market a bit longer. It’s not uncommon for a home that would have created a bidding war in 24 hours just a few months ago to sit on the market for two, three, four or more weeks! We are ALSO seeing price drops, but there’s often more to the story. Many of those homes are not marketed properly, are being sold by ‘iBuyers’ like Zillow and OpenDoor, and/or were overpriced to begin with so the days on market and price “adjustments” can be misleading.

That being said, adjustments are happening Every. Single. Day.  Yes, still beating the same old drum…stick ;-).

The homes under $400K, which are rare, go very quickly and often are still getting bidding wars.  The mid-range, which I define between $500-$800K are probably the slowest moving category at this  time and the upper range, above $800K are still fairly fast paced.

I do expect this trend to continue with longer days on market and more price adjustments throughout the next 2-3 months as overpriced listings come down to real value (many sellers are still trying to push the envelope above what the market says their home is actually worth).

In January, I expect a slow escalation of listings to start hitting the market, for that to gain speed along with prices by February and for the craziness of the market and competitive bidding to be riding on its heels by late February. The Spring is likely going to be hectic and then, as we see rates begin to steadily rise (which almost all experts are indicating), I think you will see a more consistent slow down around mid to late summer.

From there, I think our market will finally be back to a “normal” real estate market with relatively predictable seasonal trends!

So, if you look up and see Turkeys falling from the sky, I would tell you to get out of the way!

But, just because turkeys might be falling, it doesn’t look like the market will follow suit anytime soon.   We will level with pricing and see longer days on market (and sellers having to cover more costs/concessions), but I still don’t see a major overall market price drop anytime in the immediate future.

And, just like I always seem to close this letter over the past many months, I will do so again as I don’t want to disappoint you.

It is still an amazing time to sell (but HURRY!) as prices are high, but the interest rates are still low (but HURRY!) so it’s also still a wonderful time to buy your dream home! When the interest rates rise, your money won’t buy nearly as much!

Happy Thanksgiving!

I am grateful for all of you and wish you and your families a blessed, peaceful and ‘free flying’ Thanksgiving!


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